The political opinion poll first made itself felt in a British General Election in 1959 when the Tories led by Harold Macmillan beat Labour (leading to much soul searching amongst some in the Labour Party)
Macmillan however was no fan of opinion polls and his words appear prescient 60 years on
‘One of the latest so-called sciences is one called psephology — flourishing in one of those new Colleges — the study of how the people voted last time, how they will vote next time; all apparently capable of mathematical calculation, irrespective of the electoral campaign or the issues at stake .
‘This sort of political Calvinism (of which Dr. Gallup is the founder) is only redeemed by the recent discovery that their predetermined anticipations are generally proved wrong. The electors do show, from time to time, a regrettable outbreak of political Free Will .’
— Mr. Harold Macmillan, Oxford Union, December 3rd, 1959
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