Measuring Labour’s Vote on 12th December 2019: Some Historical Perspectives
Labour suffered a significant Electoral defeat a year ago on 12th December 2019 while the Tories achieved a large majority, their first for three decades.
The media, which at best, is not great when it comes to history have noted that the 203 seats that were won was the lowest total since 1935. Of course there are always other figures. One is that Labour now has the largest number of female MPs in Parliamentary history. Important progress
One interesting measure is the total number of votes cast for Labour. This (fairly obviously) is not a guarantee of Electoral success but it does in a very broad way reflect a class vote and the depth of a Party’s support.
Here Labour’s 10.3 million is well down on what Corbyn achieved in 2017 but beyond that the second highest Labour total since 2001, Tony Blair’s 2nd Election victory.
Another is the percentage of the vote- vote share achieved. This varies quite a bit. High vote share is not an automatic guarantee of Election victory (see 1970) but low vote share certainly isnt (see 1983). The 32.2% achieved on 12th December is on the lower side of the historic stats. Not as low as 2010 and 2015 and in that sense the 40% achieved by Jeremy Corbyn might be seen to be against recent trends. If so, the question that needs to be answered, as much as how bad the 12th December result was, is why 2017 was such a good result (albeit not good enough to win, although it would have been in some other Election years)
One thought might be that this support needs to further engaged with and organised to help secure a future Labour win. Its surely not about Westminster but about the grassroots in workplaces and communities across the country.
Labour votes. Number & percentage share of vote
2019 10.3m 32.2%
2017 12.88m 40%
2015 9.35m 30.4%
2010 8.61m 29%
2005 9.55m 35.2%
2001 10.72m 40.7%
1997 13.52m 43.2%
1992 11.56m 34.4%
1987 10.03m 30.8%
1983 8.46m 27.6%
1979 11.51m 36.9%
1974O 11.46m 39.3%
1974F 11.65m 37.2%
1970 12.18m 43%
1966 13.07m 47.9%
1964 12.01m 44.1%
1959 12.22m 43.8%
Source
House of Commons: UK Election Statistics
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