London Socialist Historians Group
Press Release 10th July
Contact Dr Keith Flett 07803 167266
Historians say England football results make no difference to political fortunes
The London Socialist Historians Group that organises the socialist history seminar at the Institute of Historical Research, University of London, has said that despite claims an England football victory on Sunday will benefit Boris Johnson, poll evidence back to 1966 suggests this won’t be the case.
The historians looked at opinion poll evidence for three key England football games.
The World Cup final in July 1966 which England won, the World Cup quarter final in June 1970 and the European Championship semi-final in 1996 both of which England lost.
When England beat Germany at Wembley in the World Cup final on July 30th 1966 Harold Wilson claimed England only won under a Labour Government. Labour had won the March 1966 General Election. A poll taken on July 27th 1966 gave Labour 48.1% of the vote and the Tories 38.8%. Another at the end of August gave Labour 44% and the Tories 44.5%. The change was likely to have been related to economic problems rather than the football.
On June 7th 1970 England lost to Brazil in a World Cup quarter final. Tony Benn worried it wouldn’t help Labour in the forthcoming General Election on 18th June which they lost. A poll taken on June 6th gave the Tories 44.4% and Labour 48.1%. A poll on June 11 saw Labour with 49% and the Tories with 42%
On June 26th 1996 England lost the European Championship semi-final to Germany after Gareth Southgate missed a penalty. Yet John Major’s Government was already doomed irrespective of the result. On June 24th the Tories polled 31% and Labour 50%. By June 28th this was 32% to 52%
The historians say that while big football occasions spark much interest and debate the historical evidence suggests they don’t influence political fortunes which are determined by more ‘bread and butter’ issues in the main.
London Socialist Historians convenor Keith Flett said, the evidence back to 1966 is that if England do win at Wembley Boris Johnson won’t get a football bounce and neither should he-he is a rugby fan.
Statistics from Mark Pack’s poll database
PollBase: Opinion polls database from 1943-today
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