Kmflett's Blog

Epidemics. Back to the nineteenth century with Boris Johnson

The Government in its usual chaotic manner is removing remaining restrictions in England as COVID-19 infections rise again. The ‘debate’ such as it is hasn’t changed significantly in some ways since Governments attempted (or not) to control epidemics in the nineteenth century

In pre-modern history plagues could wipe out significant sections of the population and create conditions for what is now known as ‘regime change’. The Black Death in 1348-9 is thought to have killed around 40% of the population in some cases for example, sparking social upheaval.

From the nineteenth century on this has been less the case. Societies began to be able to control and disease better. While successive epidemics of diseases like Cholera and TB swept the world in the 1800s-and in fact still do in some parts the globe- and large numbers died as a result, the proportion of now much larger populations impacted was more limited. Even the most severe cholera epidemics killed at local peaks 15-20% of people.

The two largest nineteenth century cholera epidemics took place between 1830-32 and 1848-49. These were times of social change and revolution around the world. Wars and revolutions, also provoke population movements and refugees. This was a way epidemics spread in the nineteenth century and remains so in 2021.

The link between epidemics and revolution was a strong one at least in the mind of reactionaries. In France in 1849 some called cholera a ‘revolutionary infection’ seeing its spread as being caused by the ‘dangerous classes’ every bit as much as revolt could be.

More often though it was not revolution but riot and protest around epidemics and their impact that was seen. With job losses, poverty and lack of adequate food the issue was who to focus protest on. Governments were an obvious and relevant area with claims that they did little because they were not troubled by deaths of poor people. Sometimes it was medical authorities themselves who were faced with protests that they had not done enough. Much of this may seem rather familiar in 2021 as well.

Of relevance to 2021 is that while many Governments used similar techniques of control when epidemics first broke out-isolation, quarantine, control of movement, these didn’t ultimately work. That was because not only the cause of epidemics such as cholera was poorly understood but also because there was no effective medical remedy.

In 2021 we are in a different place. COVID-19 while a new virus is at least partly understood and there are effective vaccines against it

In the nineteenth century when epidemics reasserted themselves as they invariably did, Government reaction was mixed.

Some, where they had the ability to do so- such as Prussia- implemented police measures which remained mostly in force long after the epidemic had retreated. Others did little. In Hamburg for example nothing was done because of the impact quarantine had on trade but also because police measures posed a threat to public order. Clearly deaths took place as a result.

The health v wealth axis remains key to understanding the current actions of the UK Government. Their preference is on wealth. Many others might prefer health, a longer term guarantee of wealth for the many too.

The key text on the subject is Richard J Evans, Epidemics and Revolutions, Past and Present 120, August 1988