John Smith & Blair/Brown Labour & the polls
The Blair/Brown programmes being shown on the BBC have raised the question again about what impact the election of Blair as Labour leader after the death of John Smith in May 1994 had on Labour’s poll ratings.
I can’t obviously be sure what moves the polls but I do think that there is some evidence that there are particular events which change people’s minds on a long-term basis, as Black Wednesday seems to have done in 1992
By 1992 Thatcher had been forced to resign over the Poll Tax debacle and was replaced by John Major. Major, unexpectedly and quite narrowly, beat Labour, led by Neil Kinnock, in a General Election on 9th April 1992. For the few months afterwards the Tories led Labour on average by 5 points in the opinion polls.
Then came Wednesday 16th September 1992, ‘Black Wednesday’. On that day the Tory Government withdrew the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). In order to protect the pound Chancellor Lamont raised interest rates from 10% to 12% in the morning, and then up to 15% in the afternoon.
The following day interest rates returned to 10% but the damage was done in terms of electoral standing. Voters with mortgages, perhaps more inclined to vote Tory, had seen the spectre of the cost rising by 50% in a day. If it had happened once clearly it could happen again.
By November 1992 polls were showing ratings of around 30% for the Tories and 50% for Labour. They changed little until the eventual election in 1997. Labour’s lead was nothing to do with Blair, who wasn’t Labour leader in 1992, but with an event so potentially cataclysmic in its impact that it stuck in voter’s minds.
If enthusiasts for the Blair era want something genuinely interesting to focus on it might be on how after 4 years of a Labour Government, Blair managed to win the 2001 General Election with an almost identical outcome seat wise to 1997. It might of course be argued that this was to do with the mess the Tory Party was in, identity wise, but it might also suggest Blair’s early years made a positive impact on voters….
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