1992-2021: Labour & the polls
Following an increase in the scandals surrounding Boris Johnson, including his Downing St flat refurb and Downing St Xmas parties in 2020, Labour has taken a lead in two opinion polls published on 9th December. Stephen Bush, currently of the New Statesman but due to move to the FT has noted that polls don’t matter much during a Parliamentary mid-term. Broadly I agree but if a trend of Labour leads is established it becomes more significant.
We can see this in the period 1992-1997
We can’t obviously be sure what moves the polls but I do think that there is some evidence that there are particular events which change people’s minds on a long-term basis, as Black Wednesday seems to have done in 1992
By 1992 Thatcher had been forced to resign over the Poll Tax debacle and was replaced by John Major. Major, unexpectedly and quite narrowly, beat Labour, led by Neil Kinnock, in a General Election on 9th April 1992. For the few months afterwards the Tories led Labour on average by 5 points in the opinion polls.
Then came Wednesday 16th September 1992, ‘Black Wednesday’. On that day the Tory Government withdrew the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). In order to protect the pound Chancellor Lamont raised interest rates from 10% to 12% in the morning, and then up to 15% in the afternoon.
The following day interest rates returned to 10% but the damage was done in terms of electoral standing. Voters with mortgages, perhaps more inclined to vote Tory, had seen the spectre of the cost rising by 50% in a day. If it had happened once clearly it could happen again.
By November 1992 polls were showing ratings of around 30% for the Tories and 50% for Labour. They changed little until the eventual election in 1997. Labour’s lead was nothing to do with Blair, who wasn’t Labour leader in 1992, but with an event so potentially cataclysmic in its impact that it stuck in voter’s minds.
It’s worth pointing out (thanks to Lindsey German for this point)that the October 1992 pit closure crisis underlined and amplified the Tory crisis. The Tories had spent the mid-1980s demonising and defeating the miners on pit closures. But when Heseltine tried again in 1992 the mood was very different. Public support swung behing Arthur Scargill and the NUM’s efforts to stop further closures.
One wonders if the latest scandals to surround Johnson will see the start of the same long term poll trend? The next few months will tell us. Whether you think Starmer is a decent Labour leader or not, it wont be much to do with anything he does or doesnt promote. What 1992 suggests is that its about Tory crisis and whether the left and labour movement can galvanise the mood around that which has the real impact
Morning Star Editor Ben Chacko makes some very good points on the balance between the left fighting the rightward drift in Labour and building a wider fight from below:
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/can-rage-boris-johnson-be-turned-real-left-counterattack
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