The long 2018? The problem with ‘Long Corbyn’
Labour’s election performance in England was good in some parts of London and also patchy elsewhere with some progress on 2018 but arguably not enough.
John Curtice who comments on elections, and often brings an independent perspective beyond Party spin (not one I always agree with btw) has argued that Labour did slightly better under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership 4 years ago. Perhaps although comparisons are difficult.
Some Labour commentary has blamed ‘long Corbyn’, an argument that people don’t vote Labour because they recall the last Labour leader. There is an obvious problem with this even if we assume it’s true. Far from everyone disliked Corbyn and those in that area may well feel that his current treatment by Labour is enough to swerve a Labour vote. In fact people who take that view regularly pop up on my twitter timeline. Its one I understand but it leads to another discussion about alternatives. Jeremy Corbyn himself called for a Labour vote on Thursday
Not expectedly the Observer Editorial (8.5) goes on about ‘long Corbyn’ arguing how difficult it is for Starmer’s Labour to recover from the 2019 General Election result. The problem with this point is that the elections in 2022 were local ones and they were last fought in 2018. What Labour actually needed to do was to further build on the modest successes of that year.
Historians are familiar with the concept of ‘long’ and indeed ‘short’. Eric Hobsbawm wrote of the long nineteenth century (to 1914) and the short twentieth century for example.
Politically though its often an excuse. Those who are old may well recall Harold Wilson using the phrase ‘thirteen years of Tory misrule’ at the 1964 Election. There was truth in it but it was still used when he was PM but he himself might reasonably have been expected to be accountable for events.
There are other issues with Long Corbyn, even if you think it has some validity, it only works in England (and only patchily even then). Firstly Johnson is clearly and rightly deeply unpopular but that doesn’t mean voters turning to Labour. The LibDems and Greens did well and arguably better than Labour in many areas.
Secondly Labour, in office in Cardiff Bay, put in an improved performance in Wales. Was that Long Corbyn? Does it also apply to Labour’s welcome improvement in Scotland? In London the loss of Tower Hamlets to Aspire suggests that at least there Labour has successfully ditched the Corbyn legacy. Islamophobia a serious issue in society as much as anti-Semitism, has not been a priority for Labour recently. Clearly the voters of one part of East London noticed, although that was not the only factor at work.
Talk of Long Corbyn is a distraction at best. If Labour is serious about winning an Election and I hope it is (Johnson needs to go) it needs to stare reality in the face not play silly games.
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