By-Elections. Starmer (narrowly) fails the Blair pre-1997 Test
In the three by-elections held on 20th July Labour took Selby from the Tories with a huge swing, narrowly failed to take Uxbridge, while the LibDems won Frome.
It is bad news for the Tories, that is good news for everyone else. As the psephologist John Curtice noted the overall swing to Labour would be enough for a landslide win in 2024.
That is good news for all those who wants the Tories out.
At the same time Starmer who spent time being mates with Blair this week has failed the 1992-97 test when Labour led by the late John Smith and Blair defeated the Tories at every by-election where Labour was the main challenger.
There was of course criticism from the left (myself included) but there was no doubt that pre-1997 aside from hatred of the Tories Labour had the popular mood. Thursday suggests this is work in progress for Starmer. Of course there are other foci of anti-Toryism than Parliamentary elections…
Wiki
There were 18 by-elections in the 1992–1997 Parliament. Eight were in seats held by the governing Conservative party, nine by Labour and one by the Ulster Popular Unionist Party. Nine by-elections were won by the incumbent party, all of which happened to be Labour. The Conservatives lost all eight seats in the by-elections – four to the Liberal Democrats, three to Labour and one to the SNP. The UK Unionist Party gained North Down from the Ulster Popular Unionists. 16 by-elections were a result of the death of the incumbent MP – eight Conservatives died, along with seven Labour MPs and the Ulster Popular Unionist MP Sir James Kilfedder.
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