Measuring the size of demonstrations
Saturday’s London demonstration for a ceasefire in Gaza was according to media estimates, likely to be based on an officially circulated figure, 100,000 strong. It was of course much larger. Some of those involved were also organisers for Stop the War demonstrations twenty years ago on Iraq. That included the largest ever in UK history when well over a million marched to Hyde Park.
It was and is difficult to argue about that as there are pictures of a huge crowd in the Park. When protests end in central London its much more difficult to assess numbers. There were two stages on Saturday, one in Parliament Square and one in Trafalgar Square. That suggests very large numbers.
Another indication is how long it takes a march to finally leave, in its entirety, the assembly point.
The State has had varying perspectives on assessing numbers on protests. Historians are still debating how many were at Peterloo in 1819 but the authorities were not counting. Their view was simply that it was too many.
The Chartist protest on Kennington Common on Monday 10th April 1848,the first to be photographed, saw a new and now familiar strategy deployed. Again historical debate about numbers continues. The papers suggested tens of thousands- the official view- while many Chartists reckoned around 100,000. The Chartist leader O’Connor suggested far larger numbers, an unhelpful perspective which still sometimes happens.
The Anti-Vietnam War protest in central London on 27th October 1968 had around 100,000 on it. The BBC reported 25,000 which was possibly a police figure. If it was the question was raised why 6,000 police officers were needed.
In recent decades the Met Police have generally stopped estimating protest numbers. Its not their job- knowing a rough size of course is for crowd safety purposes only. On very large protests its hard to be sure of precise numbers. People leave and join on route and at the end before a rally starts.
Recently the police seem to have started estimating numbers again. The purpose is political of course a subset of the Suella Braverman Culture War department. The 5 people arrested on Saturday represent a tiny amount if the protest was 100,000 strong. If it was 500,000, much more likely, even mentioning it is bonkers. But then Braverman….
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