Four Years On: Measuring Labour’s Vote on 12th December 2019
Labour suffered a significant Electoral defeat on 12th December 2019 while the Tories achieved a large majority, their first for three decades.
Keir Starmer’s constant refrain is that Labour has changed. Indeed thousands of members have left and the Party has lurched rightwards. Polls suggest that Labour will win a General Election mainly it might be ventured because the Tories are a chaotic disaster and Starmer is not in the frame for that.
The media, which at best, is not great when it comes to history often notes that the 203 seats won was the lowest total since 1935. Of course there are always other figures. One is that Labour now has the largest number of female MPs in Parliamentary history.
One interesting measure is the total number of votes cast for Labour. This (fairly obviously) is not a guarantee of Electoral success, particularly with a first past the post system, but it does in a very broad way reflect a class vote and the depth of a Party’s support.
Here Labour’s 10.3 million was well down on what Corbyn achieved in 2017 but beyond that the second highest Labour total since 2001, Tony Blair’s 2nd Election victory.
Starmer’s references to the 2019 Election, in which he played a key role, may be seen as political theatre, even if he is not exactly the best actor. The reality is however that away from Westminster in workplaces and communities support needs to be engaged not just to win Elections but to provide a basis for a Labour Government in Office. Even Labour’s focus groups underline there is a lot to do here and present Labour positions across a range of issues are not helping.
Labour votes
2019 10.3m
2017 12.88m
2015 9.35m
2010 8.61m
2005 9.55m
2001 10.72m
1997 13.52m
1992 11.56m
1987 10.03m
1983 8.46m
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