Writing in 1959 the socialist historian and activist E P Thompson noted that psephology, voting statistics and predictions, should really be called ephology.
He had a point. Elections are about people and a basic expression of how they think the UK part of the world should be working not statistics or extrapolations based on them
Even so the Bloomberg graphic above is interesting. Four of the five largest By-Election swings from Tory to Labour since 1945 have taken place in the last year. The other took place in the years before Labour’s 1997 landslide. Chris Webb’s victory for Labour at Blackpool South on May 2nd saw a 26% swing, the third largest since 1945.
Moreover the nine seats lost in By-Elections by the Tories since 2019 are only equalled in recent decades by John Major’s Government from 1992-97. The Tories dismal poll rating has shown no improvement of note since Sunak took over from Truss
Whatever might be thought of Starmer’s Labour, these stats reflect an historic crisis of the Tory Party and potentially a shapeshifting reconfiguration of the right in British politics. They also suggest that Labour will be in No.10 before long. It likely reflects a change of political mood in the country that is not susceptible to anything either Sunak or Starmer can or cannot do
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