Labour lead at 26pts Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 20% (-4)
REF: 13% (+2)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-1) via
@YouGov, 20 – 21 Feb
Will the Tories become extinct?
The subject of Tory extinction comes up from time to time.
It was discussed after 1997 when the New Labour landslide led to a perspective that if Labour and the LibDems could form a progressive (in 2024 terms centrist) electoral grouping then they could replace the Tories as the ‘natural party of Government’.
It didn’t happen and we’ve now endured 14 years of Tory/LibDem, Tory rule.
It’s being discussed again not because of Labour’s poll lead over the Tories- although the recent By-Election victories for Labour perhaps point to it- but because the Tories have fallen so low in the polls. In a proportional voting system this would not be decisive. However in a first past the post system, as the LibDems have perpetually found out since the 1920s, it can be.
At the moment the Tories need to dip only a percentage point or two further and they could be reduced to a very small rump of MPs. The example used is the Canadian election of 1993.
At one level this appears a possibility. The Tories are meant to be the party of capital. Firstly capital is clearly split about how it wants the economy to proceed. Secondly, and relatedly think Truss. It might be argued that the Tories at the moment are not reliably the party of capital. Rather they are a party of a rag bag of right-wing prejudices and bigotry- hence the culture wars. Electorally however other parties can do this- Reform UK for example.
The media is full of talk of a Tory reconfiguration after the Election and the form this might take is probably going to be determined by how bad the polling numbers are.
Since the formation of the modern Tory Party in the 1830s it has often shape shifted and may well do so again.
Of course the other side of the equation is Labour. The Tories only real hope is that Starmer visits his favourite button- the one marked self-destruct- once too often before polling day. Some might argue that despite its polling numbers Labour as a moderate social-democratic party is also now extinct.
That is an argument for another time. However while the current crop of Labour politicians may not grasp it, the party embodies the idea, deeply rooted in society, that capitalism can be changed to make it a little bit better. Labour may have given up on that, but the idea will remain and find ways to manifest itself
That is discussion to be had in the potential implosion of the Tory Party
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