Psephology is the practice of opinion polling, often derided. As long ago as 1959 the socialist historian E P Thompson dubbed it Ephology, inserting pre-conceived ideas about who would or should win elections into actual election contests.
Certainly historically some polling organisations, YouGov in particular, were thought to poll a base which had more Tory voters and hence produce results favourable to the Tories.
However we live in a market economy and polling companies make their money via all kinds of polls with commercial applications. If their high profile election polls are accurate this is profitable in the wider context.
In April Survation produced a survey looking at the next UK Election. It uses the same format that correctly predicted the 2015 and 2019 results and some more recent Election results around Europe.
Looking at the database I checked the figures for Suella Bravermen who will be contesting a new 2024 Constituency Fareham and Waterlooville (in Hampshire) based on boundary changes which have abolished her old seat
Fareham and Waterlooville 2024 prediction (percentage of vote)
Tory 37.75
Labour 34.69
LibDem 13.63
Green 4.43
Reform 8.24
Majority 3.05
2019 majority 42.23
Obviously these are computed figures for a new constituency but in 2019 the LibDems would have been second. So far in 2024 based on the Survation poll Labour is second, with Reform on 8%. The Tory majority in 2019 of 42% is predicted now to be 3%.
Actual voting figures provide a reality check to computed figures, albeit those for local elections held on May 2nd 2024 will be on a much lower turnout than would be the case for a General Election.
Braverman’s Constituency has Wards in three voting areas, Fareham, Havant and Winchester. In Fareham the picture looks mixed. The Tories lost six seats but easily retained control of the Council with the LibDems the main challenger. Labour made significant gains in Havant but not in the three Wards in Braverman’s new Constituency. In Winchester the Tories did lose heavily to the LibDems in both relevant Wards.
The Telegraph (4th May) reports that after the May 2nd elections the LibDems see Braverman’s seat as one of several in Surrey and Hampshire they have a chance of winning. In Braverman’s case the report cites the gains the LibDems made in Fareham.
Update #2
The Times (10th June) reports from Braverman’s Constituency and out with the candidate doesnt find many of her supporters. It notes:
Boundary changes have put Labour within a few percentage points of winning,according to the latest MRP poll, while the LibDems are only a few more percentage points behind
Braverman has said that the Tories and Reform should join forces (Times 10th June) but post the reappearance of Farage, Reform are also challenging in the seat
A large scale Savanta poll (19th June) suggests that Braverman is one of a list of well known Tories who could be set to lose their seats on 4th July
Could it be goodbye Suella? That will depend on what people do, not on opinion polls
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