A YouGov poll on 3rd April predicted that Labour will win a 154 seat majority at the Election. We shall of course see but for those of us who want the Tories out this can’t be seen as anything but positive.
However the detail of the poll is interesting. Starmer’s Great Moving Right Show has seen Labour support decline in 50 urban seats. Yet such was the size of the Labour majorities achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 that none will be under threat.
Where Labour is making headway is in Tory held seats. Labour is up 8 points in Tory held seats but the real story here is the very significant decline in Tory support and the rise of Reform. Psephologist John Curtice notes that in Tory held seats Reform is polling at 14% while in Labour held ones its at 6%
In Basildon a totemic seat won by Labour in 1997 the party’s support is up 12% but the Tories are down 33%.
Corbyn’s part in Starmer’s poll victory is unlikely to see the current Labour leader congratulate the former one but it underlines that the world is more complex than headlines suggest.
That means that a near identical vote share to Corbyn in 2017 40 to 41 which saw him win 262 seats will see Starmer win 403…
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