Braverman set to speak at far right conference in Brussels; Her Commons seat is at risk.
Suella Braverman is set to speak at a far right conference in Brussels during the week
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/13/suella-braverman-brussels-convention-viktor-orban
Labour has called on Sunak to intervene particularly after his recent speech condemning extremism in British politics.
Braverman is paid £90K a year to represent her existing constituents in Parliament. It seems unclear how her appearance in Brussels is fulfilling her job description.
This may be more of an issue than previously thought. With boundary changes her Parliamentary seat is very far from the safe one it previously was.
Psephology is the practice of opinion polling, often derided. As long ago as 1959 the socialist historian E P Thompson dubbed it Ephology, inserting pre-conceived ideas about who would or should win elections into actual election contests.
Certainly historically some polling organisations, YouGov in particular, were thought to poll a base which had more Tory voters and hence produce results favourable to the Tories.
However we live in a market economy and polling companies make their money via all kinds of polls with commercial applications. If their high profile election polls are accurate this is profitable in the wider context.
Survation recently produced a survey looking at the next UK Election. It used the same format that correctly predicted the 2015 and 2019 results and some more recent Election results around Europe.
Looking at the database I checked the figures for Suella Braverman who will be contesting the new 2023 Constituency Fareham and Waterlooville (in Hampshire)
Fareham and Waterlooville 2024 prediction (percentage of vote)
Tory 37.75
Labour 34.69
LibDem 13.63
Green 4.43
Reform 8.24
Majority 3.05
2019 majority 42.23
Obviously these are computed figures for a new constituency but in 2019 the LibDems would have been second. So far in 2024 Labour is second, with Reform on 8%. The Tory majority in 2019 of 42% is predicted now to be 3%.
Braverman’s ambitions to be the leader of a hard to far right Tory Party may be thwarted..
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