The Spectator (9th May) has reported that the Tories have started a culture war on psephologist John Curtice.
At a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday Isaac Levidow the Tories Election strategist reviewed the 2nd May Election results. Looking at the analysis of Michael Thrasher for Sky which suggested that Labour would fall short of an overall majority and that there would be a hung parliament, Levidow noted that Thrasher was a ‘professional’.
Turning to the analysis John Curtice did for the BBC which suggested a comfortable Labour majority, primarily Curtice argued because local election results do not transfer in an uncomplicated way to a General Election outcome, Levidow argued that Curtice was a ‘political commentator’.
In reality while Thrasher and Curtice ran psephological models, producing a similar outcome in terms of a Labour lead, it was Curtice’s analysis that Levidow didn’t like.
The Spectator suggested that while the Cabinet clung to Thrasher’s analysis suggesting a small chance of a Tory victory, most Tory MPs’ take the Curtice line that defeat is more or less inevitable.
Let the Culture War commence.
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