Class, History & Geography in the General Election
A footnote that the socialist historian E P Thompson made to his A Psessay in Ephology about the 1959 General Election, though over 60 years old, does seem to capture quite well the relation between the media, leaders debate and opinion polls currently:
A psephologist is a man employed by the mass media to research into what people think the mass media has told them to think. An ephologist is a man employed by the ‘Observer’ or BBC to interpret the results of psephology and who makes an ephing good thing out of it
Polling outfit IPSOS has published an MRP poll which shows the current break down of support in each Constituency. For those who want the Tories out its good news. There is a Labour landslide coming with even hard right figures like Jenrik, Braverman and Truss not safe.
The headlines generated by such polls often come with brief if unexplained historical references.
For example the Tories are set to win fewer seats than at any Election for over a hundred years.
Meanwhile the projected Labour majority could be one of the largest the Party has ever achieved.
Starmer goes on constantly about his changed Labour Party but it is not a new approach. Very similar wording was used by Blair in 1997. By change of course he means that he has purged much of the left from Labour. Purging voters is more difficult.
Jeremy Corbyn looks to be in with a distinct chance of winning in Islington North, itself a rare achievement for an independent. But canvassing shows that on the doorstep people support Corbyn but of course have always voted Labour. Explaining that this time he is an independent candidate is crucial.
That underlines that despite Starmer voting Labour for many people and in many areas remains a class vote. At least since Labour lost the 1959 Election pundits have been trying to argue that such a thing no longer exists.
However if you look at the map closely associated with the IPOS poll it closely mirrors one that might have been found 60 years ago. Whatever Starmer’s changed Labour is about, the strongly working class areas of London, South Wales, the North-West and Tyneside are a sea of red just as they were in 1964.
The Tories may well end up with less than the 155 seats they won at the 1906 Election where they split over the issue of Free Trade. Perhaps more relevant is the Election held after the 1832 Reform Act extended the franchise. The Tories lost and a complete rethink began. William Hulton the Magistrate who sent the Yeomanry in at Peterloo in 1819 was amongst those who began to organise grassroots Tory organisation.
Something similar might be expected for the Tories after July 4th combined perhaps with a further lurch to the right.
All this though represents a one-dimensional politics. The differences between Starmer and Sunak exist but are very much at a secondary level. Both back a capitalist market economy and a drive to war.
On that basis turn-out is not likely to be high and the total share of the poll taken by Labour and the Tories is likely to be the lowest of recent times. There are many independent candidates standing some on socialist and Palestinian platforms. They cannot rely on any media coverage but on organising locally and going door to door.
In the interests of wider democracy and socialist politics let’s hope there are some decent votes. A landslide however does tend to sweep aside all
This post appeared originally in the Morning Star
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