According to Bllly Bragg (Saturday Boy):
And it’s surprising how quick
A little rain can clear the streets
I don’t want or plan to generalise and I’m well aware that the 1917 Russian Revolution took place late in that year when the weather was not at its kindest.
Even so the weather does have an impact on protest in the UK and there is no more relevant time to review the point than the, very wet, Chartist march on Newport in South Wales which ended on 4th November 1839, 186 years ago.
Since protest and the numbers it attracts can be unpredictable so the impact of the weather is to.
The ‘common sense’ on weather on demonstrations in 2025 is that if it is wet (people stay at home) or warm and sunny (people have other things to do on such day) turnout is hit. Hence a dry but overcast day is best.
It would take some considerable research effort to bottom that point out.
We do of course know of occasions when the rain hit protest quite significantly.
It’s worth keeping in mind that while in 2025 we have access to reasonably accurate weather forecasts that was not the case in Victorian Britain.
The Chartist Northern Star newspaper did not have a weather page.
When the Chartists rallied at Kennington Common for the vote on Monday April 10th 1848, they were prevented from crossing the river to demonstrate outside Parliament. On the afternoon of that day there was fighting between Chartists and the police on the south side of Blackfriars Bridge. Or there was until heavy rain caused the Chartists to disperse.
In early November 1839 the Chartists gathered in the South Wales Valleys with the aim of marching to Newport in what history calls the ‘Newport Rising’, in actuality it was a just about failed attempt at armed revolt. One reason for the failure is thought to have been that several days of heavy rain had rather dampened the spirits and organising ability of those involved.
There was heavy rain as the Chartists marched from Merthyr and Pontypool to rally at Rogerstone outside of Newport on the evening of Sunday 3rd November 1839. It was not raining on the same evening in 2025 in South Wales so anyone who looks at counter-factual history might speculate on a different outcome to events.
Of course in 2025 clothing that can protect against wet weather is much improved, but the reality is unfortunately that wet weather protests make less impact as they look as much like a lot of people who have become wet and bedraggled rather than the militant protest they actually are.
If we can grapple with climate change extreme weather events will decline so protesting to secure the future of protest makes particular sense. Unlike the Chartists we can also at least be glad we have, in the meantime, weather forecasts.
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