The January CPI inflation figure has gone up to 3%. It was perhaps not entirely unexpected but the extent of the rise probably was.
Cue blow and bombshell headlines from the usual hyperbolic media (which is most of it)
I’m a socialist historian which indicates a knowledge of economic history but not a specialist focus.
E P Thompson’s argument in the Making of the English Working Class that it wasnt the case that living standards were rising for working people in the 1830s was disputed by economic historians on the right. Some workers in this period were doing better, and some werent. As often behind the headlines lies complexity.
When we look at the January CPI inflation figure the biggest factor are private school fees which have risen due to Government policy. Not all private schools are focused on producing the next generation of Boris Johnsons but its also reasonable to say that the vast majority go to State schools (which are funded through taxes)
Two other factors reflecting the increase are tobacco and air travel. The proportion of smokers in the population is thankfully much reduced. Air travel is a broader category but it is ski-ing holiday time.
Beyond that and returning to E P Thompson the significant rise in prices for most is in food. Here inflation year on year has risen from 1.9% to 3.1%.
Its not clear how often those who comment on inflation actually visit a supermarket but I do a couple of times a week. I noted recently that lamb chops (for meat eaters) were priced at £6.50 for four. A few months back it was £5.50.
Food price increases impact at the grassroots. While wages are rising at more than the rate of inflation (for those in union organised workplaces primarily) that wont cover everyone by some distance.
As Biden found in November if a real feeling of being worse off that many have is not addressed it has wider political consequences. Trump focused on reducing the price of eggs which for reasons I dont understand seem to obsess at least some Americans (The Times reported this week a significant rise in people renting hens to lay eggs). Needless to say since Trump was elected US egg prices have continued to rise. Its primarily due to the impact of avian flu, not something I suspect that bothers Trump.
The ONS report is here
Thanks to Colum Murphy (BlueSky) and Mike Haynes (Facebook) for informed commentary
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