Research shows Reform voters are not ‘Labour’s lost voters’
With Reform doing well (far too well) In local elections in England on May 1st media hyperbole (very largely on the right) is in full swing and flies will have been having a field day as Farage’s wide open mouth emits volumes of hot air.
However new and quite detailed research has indicated that most who vote for Reform have never been Labour voters. Most are ex-Tory voters, or when it comes to 2024 non-voters. While the research doesn’t focus on it, its clear enough why. Reform is a racist party and the current and previous Tory leader are from ethnic minorities.
This doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be a focus on Labour. Morgan McSweeney is not a strategic genius when it comes to elections. Labour’s Great Moving Right Show does not deter but rather encourages Reform
Historically speaking, Reform voters are not ‘Labour’s lost voters’. About 74% of 2024 Reform voters have not voted Labour in a single general election since 2005 (as far back as we have data for). Most are historically anti Labour voters who have cycled between voting Conservative, UKIP, non voting or even Liberal Democrat. This is as true in the ‘Red Wall’ or Labour Reform seats as elsewhere.
reform_labour_final_report_cc3c7c1dd2.pdf
This extract from a post on Sam Freedman’s Substack makes a similar point
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