Psephology, Ephology & the 24 hour news society
South-West trains became the first to be re-nationalised on 25th May. Media and social media commentary noted a rail replacement bus service. Indeed. Change takes time. SW Trains may never morph from a privateering company into an efficient public service but if it does it won’t happen overnight. It will involve people, usually known as workers, doing things. Any number of social media posts won’t change that.
The same 24 hour news society can be found in wider politics.
Labour is doing badly in the polls. In my view it would do better if it reversed its Great Moving Right Show. This post is not about that.
The Guardian has published a summary of various polls looking at various ways in which Labour is doing badly 10 months after the Election
Most articles do eventually note that the next Election could be 4 years off (it could be sooner but Labour has a massive Commons majority)
As the North London Substacker Sam Freedman has noted
we’re a long way from the next election. At this point in the last election cycle Boris Johnson looked invincible and most commentators thought Keir Starmer was one by-election loss away from resigning.
What many polls are doing is not to report opinion but to try and shape it. Currently that means promoting Farage because that gets them publicity.
As E P Thompson noted as far back as 1959
A psephologist is a man employed by the mass media to research into what people think the mass media has told them to think. An ephologist is a man employed by the ‘Observer’ or BBC to interpret the results of psephology and who makes an ephing good thing out of it
New Reasoner, Autumn 1959
The Guardian piece does conclude with a quote from veteran psephologist John Curtice who understands that whatever might be wished the world does not (except very occasionally) run at the speed of a 24 hour news cycle. There is the matter of history
Sophistry. Any thoughts on this as I board the rail replacement bus service….?