Measuring Labour’s Vote on 4th July 2024 points to the issues 12 months on
Labour won the Election on 4th July 2024 with 412 seats and a majority of 170. It was close to Blair’s win in 1997
The media, by contrast, noted that the 203 seats won in December 2019 was the lowest total since 1935.
One interesting measure which allows us to get underneath the headlines is the total number of votes cast for Labour. This (fairly obviously) is not a guarantee of Electoral success but it does in a very broad way reflect a class vote and the depth of a Party’s support.
Labour won 9.7m votes on 4th July and an obvious reflection is that relative to seats won this reflects an unfair FPTP voting system. A point less heard is that whichever voting system is used has pluses and minuses. It’s a political choice.
If a vote for Labour is a class vote, and it is in many areas, the 2024 figure is less impressive than those achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. Part of this relates to a low turnout of around 60%. Part of however relates to Labour’s strategy of targeting seats to win rather than building up votes in ‘safe’ seats.
One thought might be that this ‘safe’ support needs to further engaged with and organised to help secure a future Labour win. Its surely not about Westminster but about the grassroots in workplaces and communities across the country.
Whether Starmer’s Labour has grasped this 12 months on seems highly doubtful. Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn who even in the debacle of 2019 won more votes than Starmer in 2024 has re-entered the fray as part of a putative new left grouping
Labour votes
2024 9.7m
2019 10.3m
2017 12.88m
2015 9.35m
2010 8.61m
2005 9.55m
2001 10.72m
1997 13.52m
1992 11.56m
1987 10.03m
1983 8.46m
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