New research by the British Election Study, which is genuine research not just an opinion poll, has looked at what has happened to UK voting intentions since the July 2024 election.
A graph and extract from the study is below
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/looking-for-labours-lost-voters/
There are a number of interesting conclusions not least that the biggest group of ex-Labour voters don’t really know who they might vote for.
However Labour’s Great Moving Right Show to attract Reform curious voters does not seem to be working. Rather where Labour voters have switched it is to parties who are somewhere on the liberal-left spectrum. That is the LibDems, the Greens and left independents currently coalescing around the Your Party initiative.
Of course voting intention is a very basic way of understanding the political mood. All kinds of issues from Palestine to the cost of living and fairness at work are in play. In short while the research is interesting nothing beats engaging with people, starting with talking to them in cafes, pubs, clubs, communities and workplaces
Though Reform has taken Labour’s place at the top of the polls, it is not the case that the two parties are simply trading voters. Reform’s rise has for the most part come from the Conservatives and non-voters, whereas Labour’s support has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties. Labour’s efforts to attract support on the right have brought little reward and have potentially alienated much of their base (who make up most of Labour’s losses), and there is a lot of work to be done to convince voters that they can make a difference on the economy. Labour have a large majority in Parliament and four years until they need to hold a new general election, but they have a difficult task to turn things around.
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