Psephologist John Curtice. Reform’s current success is down to a ‘niche market’ of pro-Brexit ex-Tory voters
This suggests that, even if Labour is able to address the country’s policy challenges successfully between now and the next election, support for Reform will not simply disappear. After all, in contrast to the Conservatives, Labour have lost only one in eight of its 2024 voters to Reform.
Rather, what will be key to Reform’s fortunes and specifically its vote share will be the outcome of a battle with the Conservatives for the support of pro-Brexit, socially-conservative and climate-sceptic Britain. Such voters are far from representative of the country. However, they are providing Farage with a niche market of support that, presently at least, is enabling him to make much of the political weather.
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