Caerphilly: Welsh politics takes a French turn
Reform expected to win the Caerphilly by-election for the Senedd on 23rd October and so did the media (of course). Welsh investigative journalist Will Hayward noted on Twitter that Farage had been in the Constituency a number of times and was there on Thursday. A Reform victory party was planned. As the result became clear, Farage disappeared (though not I’m sure to do his Friday Constituency Surgery in Clacton).
Reform ran a racist campaign attacking Wales Nation of Sanctuary status (essentially accepting some Ukrainian refugees) and was called out by Stand Up to Racism campaigners and Plaid. Labour meanwhile attacked Plaid, underlining just how far off the electoral zeitgeist they are.
In the event it became clear that electors in Caerphilly wanted change but not the kind of change Farage is planning. There are some similarities to recent elections in France where a left coalition headed by Melenchon has successfully thwarted the possibility of a National Rally fascist Government.
However there are differences. Melenchon does head a coalition of the left from the Socialist and Communist Parties to the Greens. There is also a left-ish programme that promises actual change.
In Caerphilly keeping Farage out relied on people voting tactically for the best placed alternative. Plaid has a good policy on Gaza but is unlikely to be on the page of breaking with austerity. Hence there are limits here. Farage type change is not wanted but in stopping that no real change is on the agenda. That won’t be sustainable for long
New Statesman 24th October
A Survation opinion poll published a week ago showed a narrow Reform lead over Plaid Cymru (42 per cent to 38 per cent) and had the effect of mobilising an anti-Farage bloc. Waves of tactical support gave Plaid Cymru almost half the vote – far exceeding support for Welsh independence – and pushed turnout to 50.4 per cent, up from 44.3 per cent in the last devolved contest.
Socialist Worker’s analysis
Leave a Reply