Kmflett's Blog

The next General Election doesnt have to be called until 2029 so polls now showing where the vote might go are speculative, however soundly based they might be.

The above is from Ben Walker at Britain Elects and it does show a significant drift of 2024 Labour voters to the Greens. The impact of Your Party is yet to be measured as it were.

One area where the Greens were already well placed after the 2024 Election was north-east London. That is seats in Hackney, Haringey, Waltham Forest and some neighbouring area. Boundary changes mean that Parliamentary seats now do not always mirror local Council boundaries.

According to recent figures by Britain Elects the Greens would win both Hackney North and South and come second in Hampstead and Highgate, Muswell Hill and Friern Barnet Tottenham and Walthamstow, in all cases with a vote of 30% give or take a few percentage points.

In one sense its no great surprise. Both Hackney and Haringey voted to Remain in the EU (one of the few areas that did) and going back backed the Alternative Vote in the Referendum held during the LibDem-Tory Coalition.

In most seats there are challengers further to the left than the Greens who have historically got more than 5% of the poll at General Elections on occasion. In short, particularly with the likely appearance of local Your Party initiatives (which exist in both Hackney and Haringey) matters might not end up being as clear cut as the above suggests.

Or to put it another way the left as ever has work to do, as does Labour in addressing the drift not to its right but to its left (at least based on national party politics)