Kmflett's Blog

The late socialist historian E P Thompson labelled opinion polls ephology rather than psephology. That is far from to report what public opinion was they tried to shape it, primarily by the way they asked questions.

A current example is probably More in Common headed up by Luke Tryl that uses focuses groups and wide surveys which it then uses to estimate the number of seats parties might win. The result is not based on any analysis of particular seats and can be wrong- as it often was in July 2024. It can however generate media headlines.

YouGov whose most recent poll is above are these days more reliable. They are a major polling business and if their political polls are wrong that can hit their wider business.

Keir Starmer reportedly told the Cabinet on 6th January not to pay attention to the poll. It is of course a long way to the next Election and polls can change. Further since the polling was carried on the 4th and 5th January I’m not sure its exactly the best time to be asking for people’s thoughts on anything except Trump.

However the broad direction of the poll underlines a point that was obvious in 2025. The right is split between the Tories and Reform. The left is split between Labour, the Greens and on a broad definition the LibDems.

In a first past the post electoral system designed essentially for two parties the five way split will provide interesting results. Some of course will advocate tactical voting in particular to keep Reform out. Others might well think that there is an opportunity for the left to make a significant impact at the polls (which are only one way of changing things, but an important one) and potentially an historic one.

Work in progress for 2026