The Gorton and Denton By-Election in Greater Manchester is set for February 26th. So far we only know that Andy Burnham will probably not be the Labour candidate.
That hasnt stopped views on the likely outcome appearing. One leading bookmaker has Labour and Reform neck and neck with the Greens third. Electoral Calculus suggests a Green victory but their website proclaims they do innovative polling..
What really matters on such occasions is how many people parties can mobilise on the ground and with what message. The decision is made at the ballot box not in the bookmakers or via an opinion poll
E P Thompson noted as far back as 1959
A psephologist is a man employed by the mass media to research into what people think the mass media has told them to think. An ephologist is a man employed by the ‘Observer’ or BBC to interpret the results of psephology and who makes an ephing good thing out of it
New Reasoner, Autumn 1959
Kmflett's Blog 
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