John Curtice is arguably the most reliable pollster- psephologist- currently working. He is an academic rather than someone involved with a commercial polling organisation.
He oversaw the BBC’s election coverage on 7th May and has provided further analysis in The Times (9th May).
Of course we know that Reform did quite well, although not as well as in 2025, as did the Greens who perhaps fell short of winning a few Councils they could have done. Labour meantime did badly, although again, not quite as badly as the worst case scenario.
What of the Tories. They lost 563 seats on May 7th from a low base.
Curtice notes:
Where Leave won more than 60% of the vote in 2016, Reform won 40% on average. Where less than 40% backed Brexit, Reform’s tally was just 10%. Many of the voters who backed Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done’ in 2019 have now switched to Nigel Farage’s Party… Indeed it is the Conservatives who have suffered most where Reform have done best. On average the Party’s support is down on 2022 by 11 points. But it has fallen by 17 points where Reform have won more than 30% of the vote
Kmflett's Blog 
Leave a comment