Kmflett's Blog

Research finds Suella Braverman to be the most right-wing MP

Research by Prof Chris Hanretty at Royal Holloway has found Suella Braverman to be the most right-wing MP in Parliament.

Braverman has been hosting a morning show on LBC for New Year and has claimed that there is a wall built between Italy and Turkey and that she has been to see it. While this does underline her most right wing MP label it also suggests that she was not paying attention in Geography lessons at school..

It might be thought that there was a fair bit of competition but while Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel was found to be very right-wing, Braverman was further right still and close to Reform UK Ltd MP Rupert Lowe. Why the other Reform UK Ltd MPs were not equally on the far right is not clear. Perhaps they were in the pub when the survey took place.

More seriously Hanretty’s research asked  a large sample of local councillors to rate the most left and right-wing MP in their area against a set of economic criteria based on the positions of Keir Starmer and then Tory leader Rishi Sunak

Of course social criteria might have produced a different result. Despite the whipping system in the Commons MPs views can still vary quite a bit.

Hanretty found that Starmer was to the right of most Labour MPs (but still to the left of nearly all Tories) but notes, correctly in my view, that other Labour Prime Ministers from Harold Wilson to Tony Blair were similarly placed.

As for Ms Braverman who declined to run for the Tory leadership and sits on what there is of a Tory backbench (most of the 121 Tory MPs have shadow Parliamentary jobs) she will probably take her most right-wing MP label as a badge of honour. There have been rumours of  a defection to Reform UK Ltd after her partner switched from the Tories. However on this evidence she may be too far to the right for the Faragists.

The struggle for the Victorian Festive Season. The Transition from celebrating New Year to ‘Happy Christmas’?

The modern Christmas is attributed to Charles Dickens Christmas Carol (1843) and the promotion  of the Christmas tree, decorations etc  by Queen Victoria and Prince Albert in 1848. It remained something mostly marked by the better off who could afford to do so.

Beyond that however was a wider discussion about whether the focus of end of year celebrations should be Christmas or the wider twelve days of Christmas with foci on New Year and Epiphany.

Below is a commentary on that from the Chartist Northern Star, a weekly paper with considerable circulation.

Christmas Day is come and gone, but not so Christmas festivities ; we have yet New Year’s Day and Twelfth Night before us, and gladly do we snatch at the remaining hours of mirth and joviality, ere we finally resume the stern duties, toils, and struggle of another year.

But there are seasons when we may profitably abstain for a moment from the toils of the contest, take breath, an hereby gather up new vigour for future conflicts

Northern Star 30^th December 1843

Marx and Engels being German, would have been well aware of the Christmas celebrations which were more advanced in that country. However it is not until 1859 that we find Engels sending Marx a case of wine for Christmas. In every other year in their correspondence it is New Year not Christmas that is marked.

The matter was settled from above by the 1871 Bank Holidays Act which Boxing Day a public holiday whereas New Year’s Day was not. A separate Act for Scotland however made January 1^st not December 26^th  a public holiday.

The situation was not regularised until 1974 when both Boxing and New Years Day became public holidays in Scotland, England and Wales

2024: The Year of Starmer’s Suits

Keir Starmer has a way to go in the suit wearing department to catch up with Jacob Rees Mogg. A recent Discovery TV series about Rees Mogg, partner, children and servants, revealed that the former MP is never to be seen without a suit. Its quite possible he wears one in bed.

Starmer doesn’t always wear a suit- just nearly always. An issue that surfaced after the July Election is that he doesn’t it seems get his suits from M&S (not easy as it once was btw) or Next but in some cases they were paid for. It’s not clear whether Boris Johnson ever got clothes donations along with all the holidays etc but in any case clothes from Primark are never going to look that great.

However Starmer’s suits have been judged stylish by those who know about such things and it may be that this is one of his successes of 2024…

Although we don’t know which tailor he uses, it has been noted that his suits do fit well. “Keir Starmer’s tailoring is considerably better than that of most politicians, partly because his suits are cut in such classic proportions,” wrote Derek Guy in an article for Politics Home in May 2024.

“His suit jackets bifurcate him about halfway from his collar to the floor; his lapels end halfway from his collar to his shoulder joint. His trousers are neither too slim nor too full, and his shirt collar points are long enough to reach his lapels, creating that smooth, uninterrupted line under his chin, leading the viewer’s eye up to his face.”

Telegraph 25^th August 2024

There will no doubt be many weighty obituaries of the former US President Jimmy Carter who has died aged 100.

However in an age when political image is often key, Carter deserves also to be recognised as someone who promoted a casual style of dress for a political leader.

This did not mean that he appeared anything less than smartly dressed or that on occasions he could be found wearing a formal suit and tie. However he also pioneered an open necked shirt, casual style of political dress

Attending a Speakers dinner for Ted Heath on 2nd March 2000 Tony Benn discussed the matter with Tony Blair. Blair told Benn that ‘he couldn’t wait to get out of his business clothes and into jeans and an open necked shirt’. Benn said that he was just the same and records in his diary ‘we had a discussion about whether we could wear open necked shirts in the House’. Blair said he ‘couldn’t do it’ but Benn pointed out to him that Jimmy Carter had pioneered an informal political look.

When John Bercow was speaker from 2017 MPs did not have to wear ties in the Commons. Under the current speaker Hoyle the requirement has returned. Perhaps a good tribute to Jimmy Carter’s role in pioneering a modern image for male politicians would be to scrap it again

In late December 1863 Marx was in the Dutch City of Zalt-Hommel sorting out affairs following the death of his mother.

Writing to Engels Marx underlined what his New Year’s Resolution was:

I gave up smoking completely 2 1/2 months ago and it’s unlikely that I’ll start again very soon.

Engels remained a fan of Cuban cigars

Northern Star, 3rd January 1852

After the defeat suffered by Chartism in 1848 a range of options about how to change society developed. One was Harney’s The Charter and Something More, a social democratic programme influenced by Marx and Engels.

Another perhaps less explored in relation to Chartism was Co-Operation. The above report appeared in the first issue of the Chartist Northern Star in 1852 (its last year of publication).

The report is notable for the location, the Temperance Hall, the banner ‘the organisation of labour’ and the presence of female co-operators. Co-operation also featured as a strategy promoted during the 1853/4 Preston lock out.

EP Thompson’s argument that having failed to challenge market capitalism the Chartists and their successors proceeded to warren it from end to end comes to mind here.

More in Common Poll: the Ephologists are back

Opinion polls before the July 2024 General Election accurately predicted a Labour landslide. They also significantly over reported the share of the vote Labour actually got.

Why this was can only be speculated about of course (not as far I know that the pollsters have done). It may be that the predicted Labour polling was mainly those who just wanted the Tories out. It might be that tactical voting to get Tory MPs out took away from Labour’s actual vote.

Five months on ‘More in Common’ has published a poll which is featured in the Sunday Times (29^th December) it rests on a MRP poll taken between October and December and has a seat by seat breakdown of where it suggests polling sits now.

Several of these detailed polls appeared before July. I studied them intently not least because they seemed to suggest Suella Braverman would lose her seat (she didn’t). Essentially they were only really of any use where one party was leading by a significant amount. Where results were narrower they weren’t much use.

The More in Common poll suggests that 70 odd Reform UK Ltd candidates could be elected. Looking at individual seat predictions the victories are mostly by a few percentage points.

The person who fronts up More in Common Luke Tryl appears to be keen to promote the idea of the break up of a two party system. In a first past the post electoral system this is problematic not least for opinion polls

However the 2024 General Election saw Labour and the Tories take a combined share of just under 60%. For reference in the 1959 General Election they got 93%

The problem with Tryl’s analysis (leaving aside the problematic polling) is that while he is right about the fracturing of a two party ‘consensus’ he sees this as being overwhelmingly about the rise of the far right.

Yet looking at the July result the Green Party came second to Labour across a swathe of North-East London seats. The poll suggests the Greens would get two seats down from four. Hmmm

Then there are the ‘independents’. A slight rise in seats is predicted. The ‘independents’ are equated with something called the ‘Muslim  vote’. The label suggests a mindset which at best is not progressive. In reality the vote in 2024 was about (don’t mention the war) Gaza and also a concern that austerity would continue whoever entered No.10. In short it was a left of Labour vote. I think Tryl struggles with this concept but its one we may hear more about in 2025.

The late socialist historian E P Thompson wrote the following on opinion polls in the New Reasoner in 1959 (the NR went on to be part of New Left Review from 1960)

A psephologist is a man employed by the mass media to research into what people think the mass media has told them to think. An ephologist is a man employed by the ‘Observer’ or BBC to interpret the results of psephology and who makes an ephing good thing out of it

Opinion polls were still in their infancy 65 years ago and today regular updates from YouGov and others appear. While based on surveys of voters they can tell us little about what is actually happening on the ground in Constituencies.

The Ambridge Socialist

29^th December

Successful Year for Grundy Turkeys

It doesn’t always go to plan but 2024 was a successful year for the Grundy’s organic turkey operation. Eddie Grundy delivered the last birds while also giving Brian Aldridge a lift home from the golf club during the week.

BBC fails to report on the Boxing Day Hunt

The South Borsetshire Hunt were out on Thursday morning and Ambridge Socialist supporters were there to oppose them. There have been no reports of arrests. The BBC did however report Jakob and Paul attending to an injured horse on Boxing Day, an alternative reality.

Farewell Mick’s motor home

After various threats from Kenton, Mick’s ex-motor home was finally towed on Christmas Eve but not before he had turned it into a Christmas Grotto. Mick is now living with Joy who had planned to propose marriage on Christmas Day but in the end did not

Christmas Dinner in the Yurt

Kate & Co prepared a Scandinavian Christmas dinner served to the extended family in a yurt. Brian seemed to like it.

St Stevens on Christmas Eve

The performance of a choir before the usual Midnight Mumblings was enlivened by the BBC singers rendition of a version of Barwick Green to some traditional-ish verses

Membership of right-wing political parties: all that is solid melts into air

A war has continues between the Tories and Reform UK Ltd over which has the largest membership figures.

In a festive stunt Reform UK Ltd claimed to have overtaken the Tories. The Tories have around 120,000. On 4th January 2025 Nigel Fartage the owner of Reform UK Ltd claimed they had 170,000 ‘members’.

Fartage claimed at one point that legal action would be taken against Badenoch if she failed to apologise for saying he was lying about membership numbers. She didn’t, Fartage did nothing but now says Reform UK Ltd will oppose her in the Saffron Walden constituency at the next election (which according to UK Elections expert Mr Melon Usk will take place in February 2025)

Membership of UK political parties has been in decline since the 1950s when the Tories had over a million- albeit this was as much a social as a political structure. The largest membership in the 2000s was Labour under Jeremy Corbyn when there were over 500,000 members. Don’t expect this point to be made in any MSM commentary. Labour now has around 360,000 members.

Membership of any organisation is unlikely to be precise with unions being the most transparent as numbers are required to be reported to a Certification Officer.

In any organisation members leave, move address etc. Usually there is a period of grace before people are taken off a membership database.

Farage has claimed that the Tories are exaggerating their actual membership, but actual is an imprecise science. Reform UK Ltd MP Tice has admitted that not all members are eligible to vote in the UK, presumably the Mar A Lago branch is quite substantial.

There is another bottom line. As the name suggests Reform UK Ltd is not a political party at all but a business registered at Companies House. The majority shareholder is Farage.

Anyone paying £25 to become a Reform UK Ltd ‘member’ is actually doing no such thing. They are paying £25 into a bank account controlled by Fartage. Presumably not even he needs all the funds accumulated for his fine wining and dining activities but what happens to the money and how it is accounted for is unclear

Fartage posted on his Twitter account that 50,000 ‘members’ joined Reform UK Ltd in December. That was a very decent Christmas present- £25×50,000 into a bank account controlled by Fartage with no obvious accountability. He has also posted that four regional ‘conferences’ in January 2025 are now ‘sold out’. They are of course rallies not conferences. While Tory conferences are often attended by individuals, Labour is on a more democratic (with of course many issues) delegate basis.

Fartage also reported that the Reform UK Ltd had handed over its membership database to the Spectator, Telegraph, Sky News and the FT to scrutinise. Whether this actually happened is not known but so far silence is golden..

It almost makes the Tories look democratic…

Beard Liberation Front

29^th December.

Contact BLF Organiser Keith Flett @keithbeard.bsky.social

Michael Rosen thanks his beard ‘for believing in me’ for Beard of the Year 2024 victory

The Beard Liberation Front, the informal network of beard wearers, has said that author and broadcaster Michael Rosen has been voted of Beard of the Year 2024.

Gary Lineker, Alexei Sayle and Michael Rosen each won a Close Shave round of voting and Chris McCausland was the highest placed runner up. There were over 8,000 votes cast across the three rounds

In the final Beard Off round Michael Rosen won 40.1% of the 11,000 votes cast with broadcaster and comedian Alexei Sayle on 28.5%

Michael Rosen came second in 2023 to the former North-East Mayor Jamie Driscoll and he came second in 2022 to the England cricketer Moeen Ali

The short list comprised those with beards in the public eye who have displayed a positive image of the hirsute.

From the 12 names on the longlist after preliminary voting 4 go forward to the Beard of the Year Final with the winner announced on 28th December.

Michael Rosen responded on social media to his victory, ‘I’m honoured. Special thanks to my beard for making the effort and for believing in me’

BLF organiser Keith Flett said, we are pleased that Michael Rosen has finally been voted Beard of the Year after close shaves in 2022 and 2023. There is no question that he presents a positive public image of the hirsute and is a worthy holder of the Coveted Beard of the Year title. His recognition of the autonomous role of his beard in the victory is a particularly important point

Beard of the Year 2024 Longlist

Dylan Bachelet, Great British Bake Off

Adil Rashid, England cricketer

Michael Rosen, author & broadcaster

Chris McCausland, comedian

Aatif Nawaz, cricket commentator

Alexei Sayle, comedian

Roy Keane, football pundit

David Jesudason, beer writer

Prince William, personality

Gary Lineker, Woke Icon

Craig Revel Horwood, Strictly judge

Luke Littler, darts player