The Reform candidate in the Makerfield By-Election Kenyon got 15,696 votes and came second to Andy Burnham. A decent result it might be thought, except Reform clearly felt they would win.
Reform increased their vote slightly in percentage terms on 2024 but there was still a 55-35% gap between Kenyon and Burnham.
The media have probably corrected noted that voters were focused on supporting the candidate, in this case Andy Burnham, who would keep Reform out.
However the background statistics look grim for Reform.
Of the 90 seats where Reform came second to Labour in 2024 Makerfield was the 7th most marginal and it had the second highest vote of all the seats where Reform stood in 2024 but did not win.
After failures in Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton a reasonable conclusion might be that the momentum behind Reform is slipping.
Whether it continues to do so depends on whether Labour can do at least something to address the many issues that the have nots in society have. By that I mean not just make policies but practical changes to people’s lives for the better on the ground. No easy matter.
It also depends on the continuing campaigning of anti-racists, for example Stand Up To Racism, to isolate the hard core racist support for Reform from those who are rightly discontented and looking for a voice.
Kmflett's Blog 