Kmflett's Blog

Source: The Guardian

When Boris Johnson was elected in December 2019 he had a majority of 89. Four and half years and several Prime Ministers later, the Tory majority in Parliament is 45. The Sunday Times (12th May) argues that the figure is in fact 38.

In between there have been expulsions, suspensions, defections and seats lost in By-Elections. The Tory Party in Parliament is falling apart. An Election can’t come soon enough

Full list

Neil Parish (viewing porn).Lost seat

Matt Hancock(Im A Celeb appearance) standing down

Julian Knight (sex assault claim. Cleared) standing down

Andrew Bridgen (conspiracy theories)

Scott Benton (breach of lobbying rules)lost seat

Nigel Adams (resigned) lost seat

Nadine Dorries (resigned over Peerage)

Chris Pincher (sexual assault allegations) lost seat

Peter Bone(bullying & sexual misconduct)lost seat

Crispin Blunt (sex misconduct allegations)

Chris Skidmore (resigned) lost seat

Cheryl Gillan (deceased)

Rob Roberts (sexual misconduct)

Lee Anderson (suspended, defected)

Imran Ahman Khan (convicted of sexual assault) lost seat

William Wragg (honeytrap allegations)

Mark Menzies (alleged misuse of funds)

Owen Paterson (resigned, breach of lobbying rules) lost seat

Christian Wakeford (defected)

David Warburton (sex misconduct allegations) lost seat

Dan Poulter (defected)

Natalie Elphicke (defected)

Source Sunday Times 12th May

Is there a way forward for Brewdog?

Post the departure of James Watt as Brewdog CEO there is some interesting commentary on what this means for Brewdog

Pete Brown writing in the Morning Advertiser rightly underlines how ground breaking the original Brewdog beers were(on cask and in bottle). He goes on to argues that James Watt became a sort of punk figurehead to promote the brand but that era of Brewdog has now passed.

Brewdog did a great deal to launch the craft beer industry in the UK but now it’s a global company with beers and breweries around the world.

James Beeson in the Grocer, concurs with this last point. On Watt he ponders if trying to manage the transition from a garage brewer to a multinational one was part of the reason for the numerous issues that followed Watt around. In short Watt may have been an inspired marketing man but a people manager he was not. This is far from uncommon across industry btw.

Beeson notes that despite increasing revenue Brewdog is not profitable. This is perhaps not surprising- achieving such a status takes time. But time appears to be short. TSG the US private equity group which owns over 20% of Brewdog is due to cash in by August 2024. That means either a float on the Stock Exchange (IPO) or a sale to another brewer or private equity group.

We shall see on that but there is one step the new CEO James Arrow can take right now to set Brewdog on a better path and that is to recognise a trade union, in this case Unite.

Workers join trade unions to protect and advance their conditions but Employers have reasons to recognise them, and many large beer companies do. They can make there is an agreed and orderly way of dealing with issues so they don’t distract from the business (which is what has happened at Brewdog) and they can also considerably reduce the amount of money required to employ legions of HR managers

Masterchef to the Commons Seasonal Food Update. Penny Mordaunt thinks Starmer is a Decorator Crab running Operation  Radish

This unlikely statement was made by the Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt on 9^th May. A link to the full exchange is below

and it is a shame that we are not due an update to Peter Brookes’ “Nature Notes”, for the decorator crab is a species that covers its surface area with materials to disguise its true form, usually selecting sedentary creatures and seaweed. The Leader of the Opposition is the decorator crab of these Benches……

This is Operation Radish: the concerted effort to convince the British public that while the Labour party might look red on the outside, at its heart it really is not at all.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2024-05-09/debates/56141A16-D037-4238-B54C-2F976C37E8CC/BusinessOfTheHouse

The Spectator (9th May) has reported that the Tories have started a culture war on psephologist John Curtice.

At a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday Isaac Levidow the Tories Election strategist reviewed the 2nd May Election results. Looking at the analysis of Michael Thrasher for Sky which suggested that Labour would fall short of an overall majority and that there would be a hung parliament, Levidow noted that Thrasher was a ‘professional’.

Turning to the analysis John Curtice did for the BBC which suggested a comfortable Labour majority, primarily Curtice argued because local election results do not transfer in an uncomplicated way to a General Election outcome, Levidow argued that Curtice was a ‘political commentator’.

In reality while Thrasher and Curtice ran psephological models, producing a similar outcome in terms of a Labour lead, it was Curtice’s analysis that Levidow didn’t like.

The Spectator suggested that while the Cabinet clung to Thrasher’s analysis suggesting a small chance of a Tory victory, most Tory MPs’ take the Curtice line that defeat is more or less inevitable.

Let the Culture War commence.

Beard Liberation Front

11^th May

Contact Keith Flett 07803 167266

2024 Beard, Shorts & Sandals Official Season officially open

The Beard Liberation Front, the informal network of beard wearers, has said that the 2024 Official Beard, Shorts and Sandals Season is officially open

The pre-Season has been marked by cold and wet weather but the forecast now indicates higher temperatures with less rain for a period. The 2023 Season opened on 12^th May so it is very much in line with last year.

2024 Guidelines

1] Shorts should ideally be three-quarter length-‘culottes’ for the 2024 season. The length of shorts is particularly important as climate change may mean that unprotected legs get sunburnt. UV remains high even when the sun is absent

2] Footwear should be casual. There is a considerable range of sandal type footwear now available. Some leave parts of the feet and toes open to public view, while some do not. The BLF is not prescriptive about the matter.

3] Socks should usually not be worn. As usual there will be a vote on this policy for 2024

3a] If the beard, shorts and sandals are to be displayed in relatively busier urban areas it is likely to be prudent to wear closed rather than open casual footwear and ankle socks, not visible to others may be worn.

4] There is no prescription or definition on what type of beard may be worn, or how this may match with the shorts and sandals. This is left up to the individual.

BLF Organiser Keith Flett said, the Beard, Socks and Sandals season has been a major influence on summer fashions in recent times and we expect the 2024 season to be no different. After carefully studying the Met Office’s beard friendly guidance we believe that it is an appropriate time for the Official Season to open

Defections from the Labour Party to the right it might be argued have a place in the Party’s history.

In 1931 Ramsay Macdonald and others quit Labour to form a National Government and in practice defected to the Tory Party.

In 1981 the SDP split saw significant numbers of MPs to the right of then Labour policy. In the context of 2024 most would probably be content with Labour.

There have also of course been individual renegades from Reg Prentice to, more recently, John Mann and John Woodcock.

The recent defections of two Tory MPs to Labour, one, Natalie Elphicke known for being a hard right-winger, are historically unusual examples of political traffic the other way.

In context they might be seen both as signals of the crumbling of the Tory Party split over which way to address the continuing crisis of British capitalism, and Labour moving from any form of social democratic party to a kind of centrist-national party. In essence a party that has no fundamental principles but to do the job the Tories can’t- manage the State. Perhaps however the reality is that the job is unmanageable

After 17 years James Watt has stepped down as CEO of Brewdog. He will remain on the Board and have an advisory role (etc). In a slightly different context the same pattern was seen at Camden (now ABI) and Beavertown (now Heineken). The founders were eased out entirely over a period.

Of course Brewdog at the moment remains independent(ish). US Private Equity Group TSG have had a 22% stake since 2017. The business plan of PE is to be involved for a period (usually up to 5 years but the pandemic has intervened) and then divest at a profit.

Ive long thought that if Brewdog was going to go for a public listing (IPO) Watt would not be the person to head it up. In my experience (as union officer in the Square Mile) the City analysts who tend to decide the ‘sentiment’ around a company tend to focus quite narrowly on the financials. However such is Watt’s public profile a more reliable suit wearer- in this case James Arrow- was probably required.

Unless Ive missed something Brewdog is the only UK based craft beer company to potentially seek a listing so if it happens it will be interesting.

Rob Davies (Guardian) queried on X what is craft about Brewdog. In my view very little. The beer which used to be great is now not stand out and the bars are at expensive (Punk IPA is much cheaper in a Spoons). However the reality remains that the drinking public think of Brewdog and Beavertown as craft beer. Big Craft Beer in reality.

Of course if you like conspiracy theories (being a materialist I don’t) you might think Watt’s departure is because something even more concerning about him than has already appeared, is about to be revealed. I doubt it. This is about business.

Brewdog’s James Watt pays the price for attending Farage’s Birthday Party

Nigel Farage turned 60 in early April and held an event at Canary Wharf to mark it. It was of course a private affair. However given some of the attenders including Tory MPs Andrea Jenkyns and Mark Francois, Lee 30p Anderson currently of Reform and Liz Truss it was never going to remain that private. Photos were posted on social media.

One person who was there was Brewdog boss James Watt. He was there as a ‘plus one’ for his partner Georgia Toffolo, a social media star probably rather better known than Watt and a long- time associate of Farage.

Farage a wine drinker has likely never heard of Watt. The Brewdog boss posted on social media that any meeting with politicians attracted opprobium from their opponents. However an event which featured a video message from Trump and Farage, a rather controversial figure, is perhaps in a slightly different league.

Watt noted that it was an interesting experience to meet Liz Truss whatever it might be thought could be learnt from such a meeting.

It was all rather far removed from the original rebel image of Punk IPA, but whether was a good look for his business was questioned. A month later the question has been answered. Watt is stepping down as CEO and is in effect being side lined, likely in preparation for being phased out altogether.

More seriously the move seems to suggest an IPO is nearing. I will post on that further.

The King via the Royals X account has asked his subjects for the crowning moment of the 2023 Coronation which took place on 6th May.

Some no doubt will favour the placing of the Crown on the Royal Bonce while others will recall Penny Mordaunt’s only known useful contribution in holding a sword for a bit.

Those of us who prefer a rather more democratic perspective in the twenty first century, notwithstanding the entertainment of the continuing re-invention of Royal traditions, will surely opt for those from Republic who protested, Not My King. Some got arrested for their efforts but also in the finest traditions of the British State that was a bit of authoritarian overreach, soon reversed.

Monday May 20th 5.30pm on Zoom

Benjamin Schoendorff The Socialist Alternatives experiment: an 1980s attempt to search for a new revolutionary subject

Free: Book at this link

https://www.history.ac.uk/events/socialist-alternatives-experiment-1980s-attempt-search-a-new-revolutionary-subject

the Editor of Socialist Alternatives Benjamin Schoendorff looks at what the project was trying to achieve and reflects on the input of its most well known contributor, Keir Starmer